Calm Before CPI: Markets Brush Off Tariffs and Focus on Earnings

Strong breadth and green momentum suggest bulls are still in charge despite looming tariffs and inflation prints.

Jul 15, 2025

I. Headlines & Catalysts

Markets shrugged off weekend news of 30% U.S. tariffs on EU goods starting August 1, closing higher Monday. Analysts from JPMorgan dismissed it as noise for now, predicting either a pause or symbolic warning shot. Kevin Hassett, reportedly campaigning for the Fed Chair job, credited “patriotism buying” for keeping prices steady.

Bloomberg sees today's CPI report landing on the softer side, with no inflation impact from tariffs so far.

Meanwhile, Trump raised the pressure, warning of 100% tariffs on Russia if no peace deal emerges in 50 days, and promised “top-of-the-line” weapons for NATO allies.

On the tech front, Meta launched ‘Prometheus’, a 2026 data center push in Ohio, and teased the massive 5GW ‘Hyperion’ AI complex in Louisiana. That sent nuclear and power-related stocks soaring.

II. Sector Performance Snapshot

📈 Top sectors:

Communication Services (+0.85%)
Financials (+0.65%)
Industrials (+0.63%)
Real Estate and Utilities also modestly green

📉 Lagging sectors:

Energy (-0.85%)
Basic Materials (-0.52%)
Technology (-0.13%)

We’re seeing a rotation into cyclicals and defensives, while tech cooled slightly and energy pulled back.

III. Technical Breadth & Sentiment Check

✅ The market internals are solidly green, as confirmed by the technical dashboard:

NYSE Advance/Decline: Above 10SMA
McClellan Oscillator: +10.42 (bullish zone)
% Stocks Above 200SMA: 44.57% (climbing)
Put/Call Ratio: 0.85 (risk-on mood)
VIX: 17.20 (complacent)

Market color = 🟢 green. Breadth, sentiment, and trend indicators are aligned in favor of bulls. But, always, have a contingency plan.

IV. Earnings & Corporate News

The Trade Desk ($TTD) soared 14% after hours, entering the S&P 500, replacing ANSYS.
Nuclear plays ($OKLO, $NNE, $SMR) surged on Meta's power infrastructure plans.
Rocket Lab ($RKLB) hit new highs after Citi raised its price target to $50, citing strong commercial and government tailwinds.

📊 Today’s Key Earnings (pre-market):

JPMorgan Chase ($JPM): Est. $4.47 EPS, $43.98B Rev
Wells Fargo ($WFC): Est. $1.40 EPS, $20.76B Rev
Citigroup ($C): Est. $1.60 EPS, $20.83B Rev
BlackRock ($BLK), Bank of NY Mellon ($BK), Albertsons ($ACI) also report

V. Economic Calendar Highlights

7:00 AM – OPEC Monthly Report
8:30 AM – CPI inflation report (market mover)
9:15 AM – FOMC Member Bowman speaks
12:45 PM – Fed Vice Chair Barr speaks

The market is laser-focused on the CPI and Fed commentary. Lower inflation could lock in expectations of a 2025 rate cut.

VI. Interpretation & Outlook

Despite geopolitical noise and tariff talk, the market breadth remains healthy, sector rotation is constructive, and sentiment leans bullish. The technical dashboard lit up green across the board.

Today’s CPI print is the next catalyst. If inflation stays tame, the bulls have room to run into earnings season. On the flip side, a surprise uptick could rattle the bond market and temper risk appetite.

For now, the path of least resistance is up, but eyes stay on the data and Fed tone this afternoon.

What to trade today:

Several stocks have shown strong momentum recently, with many advancing on solid volume and displaying constructive setups. This strength led to clean breakouts from solid bases and offered low-risk entry points in names like IBIT, GE, HWM, LEU, OKLO, RBLX, DCO, RTX, and SMR, among others.