Holding Steady Despite the Slide

Markets closed red Friday but internals remain firm; eyes turn to earnings, tariffs, and CPI

Jul 14, 2025

I. Headlines & Catalysts

The week ended on a sour note, with Friday pulling the major indices lower. Still, the overall tone remains constructive: the correction has been more sideways than down, which is often a bullish sign.

Geopolitically, things got noisy again: the U.S. threatened a 35% tariff on Canadian goods if a new deal isn’t reached, an echo from the past that could resurface in global trade discussions.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin soared past $118,000, pulling up crypto-linked stocks like MSTR, RIOT, and Coinbase, showing that some pockets of the market are completely ignoring broader risk-off signals.

In earnings, early reports showed the U.S. consumer still spending, which gave some relief to investors fretting over stickier inflation.

II. Sector Performance Snapshot

Friday was a risk-off day:

🟩 Energy (+0.60%) led the pack—benefiting from a flight to hard assets.
🟩 Consumer Cyclical managed a small gain (+0.07%).
🟥 Healthcare (-1.14%) and Financials (-0.99%) were hit the hardest.
🟥 Tech and Consumer Defensive also lagged, both falling nearly 0.5%.

The rotation seemed tactical: short-term defense and profit-taking before a busy earnings week.

III. Technical Breadth & Sentiment Check

Despite Friday’s dip, internals remain firm:

✅ 63% of stocks above the 40SMA, 44% above the 200SMA — decent breadth.
✅ VIX at 16.4, calm and well below panic zones.
✅ Nasdaq and McClellan indicators are all green, indicating no major deterioration.
✅ NAAIM at 86.28, showing managers are still optimistic.
✅ Put/Call Ratio at 0.84, staying out of fear territory.

Internals suggest we’re in a healthy digestion phase, not the start of a major drawdown.

IV. Earnings & Corporate News

Delta (DAL) dropped on reports it’s stripping engines from parked Airbus jets in Europe to power planes in the U.S., partly to dodge tariffs.
Jensen Huang (Nvidia) sold stock this week as NVDA hit fresh all-time highs. He’s now wealthier than Buffett.
Early earnings indicate resilient consumer demand, but the real test begins next week.

Coming up:

FAST, SLP report today.
The Big 6 U.S. banks (JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, C, GS) report next week, these will set the tone for Q2 earnings.

V. Economic Calendar Highlights

Today: All eyes on CPI inflation data, which could swing rate expectations and market mood.
Also today: FOMC’s Bowman speaks, markets will look for tone, not just words.

Next week will be driven by:

Bank earnings
Powell commentary
Ongoing trade discussions with Canada

VI. Interpretation & Outlook

The broader market is weathering the recent pressure well, suggesting strong undercurrents. However, with indexes still extended from key moving averages, we might need more time or a dip before a new bullish leg.

Earnings season will be the main catalyst now, especially from the banks. If trading revenues shine and credit quality holds, we could see buyers step back in.

Crypto and Nvidia continue to show irrational (?!) strength, momentum there is leading, but it's not lifting the whole boat yet.

What to trade today:

Markets pulled back Friday but held up well internally. Inflation, earnings, and Powell will drive the next move. Corrections can be flat or fast, so far, we’re in the flat phase.

Stay selective, stay patient.

My watchlist:

AMSC, APH, AS, AVGO, CCEC, CPNG, DCO, DE, DELL, GE, HWM, LEU, NEM, OKLO, RBLX, RTX, SMR, TOST.