Solid Finish, but Breadth Still Thin
Amazon’s blowout and AI tailwinds fuel another green week, but leadership remains narrow
I. Headlines & Catalysts
Markets closed Friday in the green, led by a powerful Amazon earnings surge that lifted sentiment across tech. It capped off a strong October, the Nasdaq gained another 4%, repeating September’s solid performance.
Amazon’s cloud and retail mix sparked renewed enthusiasm for AI-related infrastructure. Fed commentary stayed hawkish: Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan warned that a slowing job market isn’t a free pass to cut rates, while Kansas City’s Jeff Schmid said he’d have preferred no cut at all. The takeaway: inflation is still center stage, not employment softness.
II. Sector Performance Snapshot
Consumer Cyclicals (+2.9%) stole the spotlight, while Industrials and Energy showed mild gains.
Defensives like Utilities (-0.6%), Basic Materials (-0.6%), and Consumer Defensive (-0.5%) lagged.
The rotation leaned back into risk-on growth, but the green pie remains smaller than it looks, leadership is still concentrated in AI, cloud, and a few mega caps.
III. Technical Breadth & Sentiment Check
Market internals are showing fatigue under the surface:
McClellan Oscillator: –31, signaling mild weakness.
VIX: 17.4 (calm, still bullish).
Stocks above 200SMA: 45.9% better, but not broad.
Put/Call ratio: 0.86 edging toward complacency.
NAAIM exposure: 100, leaning bullish, but… too greedy.
Sentiment improved, but participation didn’t. The market is being held up by a few giants, not the crowd.
IV. Earnings & Corporate News
Amazon (▲9.6%) smashed expectations with record $180B revenue and its fastest AWS growth in three years.
Apple (▼0.4%) missed on iPhone sales and saw weaker China revenue.
First Solar (▲14%) rallied on stronger profit despite a cautious outlook.
MicroStrategy (▲6%) turned a surprise $2.8B profit thanks to Bitcoin’s rally.
Cloudflare (▲13%) and Roku (▲7%) delivered upbeat results.
In short, growth tech stole the show, value, defensives, and cyclicals barely moved the needle.
V. Economic Calendar Highlights
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: in focus today, offering an early look at factory sentiment.
Pre-market earnings: FUBO, TGTX, CIFR, ON.
After-hours: PLTR, HIMS, SRPT, NVTS.
This week brings heavy hitters, AMD, ANET, SMCI, UBER, SHOP, SPOT, NVO, DDOG, TTD, and HOOD, making it a volatile week for growth traders.
VI. Interpretation & Outlook
The market’s trend remains up, but it’s stretched. The Nasdaq sits 5–6% above its 50-day, and most leadership is clustered around AI, semis, and data infrastructure.
Breadth must improve for this rally to last. A pullback toward short MAs could refresh setups and offer better entries. Rising yields are the quiet headwind to watch, a sustained uptick could trigger a short-term correction phase.
VII. What to Trade Today
Stay patient, not euphoric. I’ll avoid chasing extended names when the Nasdaq is extended, at least 5% above its 50-day and instead look for 5/21-day pullbacks in strong leaders from the data storage, semis, and telecom/fiber space.
For now, the focus is on discipline and selectivity.
My watchlist:
Have a profitable trading day!
PS: Wondering why there was no trading plan last week? :)
Wondered why there was no trading plan last week… then realised you were probably recharging in beautiful Poros 🇬🇷. Well deserved — hardworking traders earn their breaks! ⚓📈
Thank you for sharing the beautiful pictures.