Steady Close Before Inflation Data

Traders brace for a week of economic catalysts and options expiration

Aug 11, 2025

I. Headlines & Catalysts

Market closed at highs and we are now at a recent resistance. We might see the price in a new territory, but as always, be prepared for all scenarios by keeping an eye on the recent lows.

The week ended on a cautiously positive note, with indexes finishing just shy of fresh highs despite choppy midweek sessions. The first week under record-high tariffs brought more questions than answers for investors, prices moved higher, but conviction was thin.

Bond yields climbed as treasuries sold off. Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX at 15.15, suggesting traders aren’t rushing for hedges ahead of this week’s data.

Geopolitics added a potential curveball, President Trump said the U.S. could meet Russia next week to discuss a Ukraine ceasefire. The announcement came after the close, giving markets no time yet to price the news.

II. Sector Performance Snapshot

Leaders:

Healthcare (+1.12%)
Communication Services (+1.11%)
Technology (+0.85%)
Basic Materials (+0.84%)

Laggards:

Utilities (–0.53%)
Real Estate (–0.78%)

The session leaned defensive-to-growth rotation, with tech and materials catching a bid while rate-sensitive sectors lagged.

III. Technical Breadth & Sentiment Check

NYSE/Nasdaq breadth: Weak, with most stocks still below key moving averages.
% above 40SMA: 44.76 (green zone).
% above 200SMA: 42.38 (green zone, but barely).
McClellan Oscillator: –46.76 (negative breadth).
VIX: 15.15 (calm).
Put/Call ratio: 0.86 (neutral).
NAIIM exposure: 96.25 (yellow – elevated but not extreme).
Overall, internals are neutral with room to swing either way.

IV. Corporate News

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae surged on news the Fed will spin out part of the government-sponsored entities into public markets. This move could be the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing.
Gold miners benefited from record bullion prices after U.S. tariffs on gold bars disrupted supply chains.
Tesla secured a Texas rideshare permit for its Robotaxi unit under upcoming autonomous vehicle regulations.
Bank meetings: Trump met with top U.S. bank executives in recent weeks regarding the Freddie/Fannie deal, signaling strong institutional interest.

V. Economic Calendar & Earnings

Earnings Today:

Before Market Open (BMO): Barrick Mining, Rumble
After Market Close (AMC): AMC Entertainment, Plug Power, GoPro, AST SpaceMobile, BigBear.ai, Eastman Kodak, Archer Aviation, Oklo

Key Data:

Tuesday: Core CPI (key for Fed cut expectations)
Thursday: Core PPI, Continuing Jobless Claims

Options expiration week adds extra fuel — $6,300 strike is major support, $6,400–$6,500 resistance on heavy open interest.

VI. Interpretation & Outlook

The market closed last week at a record high despite mixed daily action, showing buyers are still defending key levels. However, breadth weakness means leadership is narrow, and gains are concentrated in sectors like tech and healthcare.

This week’s setup is binary:

Hotter inflation → delay in rate cuts → potential break below $6,300.
Cooler inflation → September cut odds rise → push toward $6,500.

For now, the best approach might be selective participation — focus on strong sectors, keep stops tight, and be ready for volatility spikes around Tuesday and Thursday’s data. Sometimes the best trade is still to “sit on hands.”

What to trade today:

Today is setup scouting day, not a “bet big” day. The market is at all-time highs but with weak internals, in an options expiration week, and right before key inflation data. The best trades may come after tomorrow’s CPI, but disciplined intraday plays on sector leaders or support/resistance bounces can still work.

Keep position sizes modest, breadth doesn’t confirm the highs, so momentum can fade quickly.

I will watch: