Tensions Weigh, Energy Holds the Line
Geopolitical heat rattles risk appetite, while Fed and war headlines steal the spotlight
I. Headlines & Catalysts
Markets stumbled Tuesday as Middle East tensions spiked after President Trump left the G7 early to address U.S.-Iran conflict concerns. His direct threats toward Iran and the country’s defiant response shook sentiment, with war risk creeping into market pricing. For now, watching the direction is safer.
On the data front, retail sales disappointed falling almost twice as much as expected in May adding to the risk-off mood as consumer weakness echoed through equities.
The Fed meets today with a 2 PM decision, but few expect a cut. Eyes will be glued to the dot plot and Powell’s press conference for hints on timing. Until then, traders are basically waiting at the roulette table, chips on “maybe.”
II. Sector Performance Snapshot
Energy stood alone in green territory (+0.92%), powered by a 3% surge in oil amid war risk.
Everything else? A sea of red:
Healthcare and Consumer Cyclicals led the laggards (–1.64% and –1.48%)
Financials, Industrials, and Tech also saw sharp pullbacks.
The picture? Energy sprinted while the rest of the market limped off the field.
III. Technical Breadth & Sentiment Check
Market internals looked bruised:
NYSE decliners > advancers, confirming the broad weakness.
Only 51% of stocks sit above their 40-day SMA, and just 33% above their 200-day.
The McClellan Oscillator is at –50, showing notable negative momentum.
VIX rose to 21.60, reflecting growing unease.
Put/Call Ratio at 0.94: mild caution but not panic.
Think of sentiment like a tired boxer, still upright, but definitely not throwing punches.
IV. Earnings & Corporate News
Solar stocks collapsed after a Senate proposal to end tax credits:
$RUN (–40%), $ENPH (–24%), $FSLR (–18%)
JetBlue ($JBLU –7.9%) cut guidance and warned of continued losses, grounding planes to stem cash burn. The broader airline sector took a hit: $UAL (–6.2%), $DAL (–4.3%).
Eli Lilly agreed to buy Verve Therapeutics for $1.3B; $VERV surged 80%.
Oil majors Chevron and Exxon climbed over 2% as crude surged.
xAI, Elon Musk’s AI startup, is seeking a fresh $4.3B in equity funding.
V. Economic Calendar Highlights
Today’s agenda is stacked:
8:30 AM: Building Permits, Jobless Claims
10:30 AM: Crude Oil Inventories
11:30 AM: Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2 estimate)
2:00 PM: FOMC rate decision
2:30 PM: Powell speaks
Expect volatility. The dot plot may reshape expectations for rate cuts this year.
Pre-Market Earnings: Aurora Cannabis ($ACB), LiveOne ($LVO)
VI. Interpretation & Outlook
Markets are dancing between war drums and Fed whispers. With sentiment bruised, technicals weakening, and geopolitical risk rising, today’s FOMC outcome could either stabilize the floor or open another trapdoor.
Expect choppy price action and sharp reactions post-2 PM. Risk management matters most today, this isn’t a day to guess the direction but to observe who’s holding the cards after Powell’s speech.
What to trade today:
Patience is the strategy today. Even with solid setups like $GOOGL, $CRWD, and $HIMS on the radar, I’m not seeing real signs of accumulation. Until the right signals show up, I’m staying on the sidelines.